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二十國集團如何利用好世界經(jīng)濟近期展現(xiàn)出的韌性
人工智能將改變?nèi)蚪?jīng)濟。讓我們確保它能造福全人類。
加速氣候轉(zhuǎn)型的收益大于成本
國際合作比以往任何時候都更加重要，因為沒有哪一個國家能夠獨自應(yīng)對氣候變化
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IMF工作人員完成2023年中華人民共和國第四條磋商代表團訪問
中國經(jīng)濟2023年預(yù)計將增長5.4%，反映出新冠疫情后的強勁反彈。
2024年3月6日 特別提款權(quán)利率及匯率
利率 = 4.083% | 1美元 = SDR 0.751992
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國際貨幣基金組織總裁克里斯塔利娜·格奧爾基耶娃 在二十國集團財長和央行行長首次會議結(jié)束時發(fā)表的講話
2024年3月1日
二十國集團如何利用好世界經(jīng)濟近期展現(xiàn)出的韌性
2024年2月26日
中華人民共和國：部分問題; 國際貨幣基金組織國別報告第24/50號; 2023年12月19日
2024年2月8日
IMF執(zhí)董會完成與中華人民共和國的2023年第四條磋商
2024年2月2日
中國房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)：管理中期放緩
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中華人民共和國：2023 年第四條磋商—新聞發(fā)布稿；工作人員報告；工作人員聲明以及中國執(zhí)行董事陳述；國際貨幣基金組織國別報告第[23/38]號 ；2023 年12 月19 日
2024年2月2日
全球經(jīng)濟接近軟著陸，但風險仍然存在
2024年1月30日
世界經(jīng)濟展望更新，2024年1月：通脹放緩和增長平穩(wěn)開拓通往軟著陸的道路
2024年1月30日
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2023年10月
2023年10月《全球金融穩(wěn)定報告》第三章：釋放新興市場和發(fā)展中經(jīng)濟體私人氣候融資的金融部門政策
2023年10月
《財政監(jiān)測報告》2023年10月：“氣候的十字路口”：全球變暖背景下的財政政策
2022年10月
亞太地區(qū)經(jīng)濟展望
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《金融與發(fā)展》：阿拉伯世界的經(jīng)濟命運
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2023年年報：努力開展協(xié)調(diào)合作
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中國：2022國別報告
新聞稿：IMF執(zhí)董會完成中華人民共和國2022年第四條磋商
IMF總裁致辭2023年博鰲亞洲論壇
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Global Economy Approaches Soft Landing, but Risks Remain
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Principality of Andorra: Selected Issues
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Principality of Andorra: 2023 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Principality of Andorra
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Report on the Financial Soundness Indicators Technical Assistance Mission
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The US Banking Sector since the March 2023 Turmoil: Navigating the Aftermath
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The World Economic Outlook (WEO) database is created during the biannual WEO exercise, which begins in January and June of each year and results in the April and September/October WEO publication. Selected series from the publication are available in a database format. See also, the?World Economic Outlook Reports.
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IMF是什么?
IMF是什么?
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國際貨幣基金組織（IMF）致力于促進所有190個成員國實現(xiàn)可持續(xù)增長和繁榮。為此，IMF支持實施有助于金融穩(wěn)定和貨幣合作的經(jīng)濟政策，這些政策對于提高生產(chǎn)力、創(chuàng)造就業(yè)和增進經(jīng)濟福祉至關(guān)重要。IMF由其190個成員國治理并對這些成員國負責。
IMF做哪些工作？
IMF具有三大重要使命：促進國際貨幣合作，支持貿(mào)易發(fā)展和經(jīng)濟增長，以及阻止有損繁榮的政策。為了完成這些使命，IMF成員國相互之間并與其他國際機構(gòu)之間開展合作，以改善民眾生活。
IMF如何開展工作？
IMF通過以下途徑促進國際金融穩(wěn)定：
?
監(jiān)督工作
監(jiān)測經(jīng)濟金融形勢并向各國提供建議
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資金援助
向成員國提供貸款和其他資金援助
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?
能力建設(shè)
通過技術(shù)援助和培訓(xùn)活動，幫助各國政府實施穩(wěn)健的經(jīng)濟政策
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IMF的監(jiān)督工作包含哪些方面？
IMF通過監(jiān)督工作維護國際貨幣體系穩(wěn)定并防止其出現(xiàn)危機。在監(jiān)督工作中，IMF與成員國政府定期開展政策對話，以便評估其經(jīng)濟狀況，并提出有助于可持續(xù)增長的政策。通過監(jiān)督工作，IMF還對區(qū)域和全球經(jīng)濟金融形勢進行監(jiān)測。
了解更多內(nèi)容
IMF提供哪類資金援助？
向面臨實際或潛在國際收支問題的成員國提供貸款和優(yōu)惠資金援助，是IMF的一項核心職責。
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IMF還提供哪些支持？
IMF開展能力建設(shè)工作（即提供技術(shù)援助，培訓(xùn)政府官員），以幫助成員國完善經(jīng)濟制度，加強數(shù)據(jù)統(tǒng)計，并幫助其在稅收征管、支出管理、貨幣和匯率政策、金融體系監(jiān)管、法律框架等方面提升能力。IMF還向成員國提供建議，推動其采用有利經(jīng)濟穩(wěn)定、減輕對經(jīng)濟金融危機的脆弱性以及提高生活水平的政策。
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IMF如何應(yīng)對新冠疫情？
疫情及其經(jīng)濟沖擊增加了成員國對資金援助的需求。為此，IMF臨時提高了總體資金支持和緊急融資的限額。此外，IMF還延長了優(yōu)惠貸款零利率政策的期限，并將緊急融資的利率永久設(shè)置為零。
以下是IMF疫情期間提供的資金援助一覽。
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SDR是什么？
IMF發(fā)行一種稱作“特別提款權(quán)”（SDR）的國際儲備資產(chǎn)，用以補充成員國的官方儲備。全球分配總額目前約為2042億SDR，約合2930億美元。IMF成員國之間可自愿用SDR兌換貨幣。
SDR信息中心 ? ? ?SDR情況簡介
IMF的資金來源是什么？
IMF的資金來自三個渠道：成員國的份額、信貸安排以及雙邊借款協(xié)議。
成員國的份額
成員國的份額是IMF的主要資金來源。一個成員國的份額反映其經(jīng)濟規(guī)模和在世界經(jīng)濟中的相對地位。關(guān)于IMF對份額的定期檢查，點擊這里了解更多內(nèi)容。
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新借款安排
IMF與一組成員國和機構(gòu)之間的新借款安排（NAB）是份額資金的主要后備支持。2020年1月，IMF執(zhí)董會同意將新借款安排的規(guī)模從擴大一倍至3650億SDR（合5260億美元）。
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雙邊借款安排
成員國還通過雙邊借款安排（BBAs）提供資金。2020年，IMF執(zhí)董會批準了新一輪雙邊借款安排。其中，截至2021年2月5日，規(guī)模約為1280億SDR（1830億美元）的協(xié)議已經(jīng)生效。
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IMF由誰管理運營？
IMF對其成員國政府負責。其組織結(jié)構(gòu)的最高層是理事會，由每個成員國的一位理事和一位副理事組成，通常是中央銀行或財政部的最高官員。理事會每年在IMF/世界銀行年會之際開會一次。國際貨幣與金融委員會（IMFC）由24位理事組成，向IMF執(zhí)董會提供咨詢。
IMF的日常工作由代表全體成員國的24位成員組成的執(zhí)董會負責管理，并由IMF工作人員提供支持?？偛檬荌MF工作人員的首腦并擔任執(zhí)董會主席，由四位副總裁協(xié)助。
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IMF是何時成立的？
IMF于1944年7月在聯(lián)合國布雷頓森林會議上被構(gòu)想而出。參加此次會議的44個國家尋求建立一個國際經(jīng)濟合作框架，避免再次出現(xiàn)導(dǎo)致20世紀30年代大蕭條的競爭性貨幣貶值。
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2024年1月
世界經(jīng)濟展望更新，2024年1月：通脹放緩和增長平穩(wěn)開拓通往軟著陸的道路
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2023年10月《全球金融穩(wěn)定報告》第三章：釋放新興市場和發(fā)展中經(jīng)濟體私人氣候融資的金融部門政策
2023年10月
《財政監(jiān)測報告》2023年10月：“氣候的十字路口”：全球變暖背景下的財政政策
2023年9月
2023年年報：努力開展協(xié)調(diào)合作
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《金融與發(fā)展》：阿拉伯世界的經(jīng)濟命運
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About the IMF
The IMF is a global organization that works to achieve sustainable growth and prosperity for all of its 190 member countries. It does so by supporting economic policies that promote financial stability and monetary cooperation, which are essential to increase productivity, job creation, and economic well-being. The IMF is governed by and accountable to its member countries.
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The IMF by the numbers
190
The IMF is governed by and accountable to 190 countries that make up its near-global membership.
44
The IMF was founded by 44 member countries that sought to build a framework for economic cooperation.
1944
The IMF was established in 1944 in the aftermath of the Great Depression of the 1930s.
1 trillion
The IMF is able to lend about $1 trillion to its member countries.
What does the IMF do?
The IMF fosters international financial stability by offering:
POLICY ADVICE
Monitoring economic and financial developments and advising countries.
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FINANCIAL ASSISTANCE
Loans and other financial aid to member countries.
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CAPACITY DEVELOPMENT
Technical assistance and training to help governments to implement sound economic policies.
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How is the IMF organized?
At the top of its organizational structure is the Board of Governors, consisting of one governor (usually the minister of finance or the governor of the central bank) and one alternate governor from each member country. All powers of the IMF are vested in the Board of Governors. The day-to-day work of the IMF is overseen by its 24-member Executive Board, which represents the entire membership and is supported by IMF staff. The Managing Director is the head of the?IMF staff?and Chair of the Executive Board and is assisted by four Deputy Managing Directors. The IMF has 18 departments that carry out its country, policy, analytical, and technical work.
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Meet the IMF team
The strength of the IMF comes from its talented and diverse employees. The IMF’s global workforce of about 3,000 hails from over 160 countries. Together, they represent a world of cultures, backgrounds, and skills that strive to live core Fund values of excellence, honesty, impartiality, inclusion, integrity, and respect. Learn more about people working at the IMF in the 2020-2021 diversity and inclusion report.
LEARN MORE ABOUT WORKING AT THE IMF
On which issues does the IMF focus?
Trade
Open, stable, and transparent trade policies are key for economic growth and resilience and for addressing key global challenges, including climate change, food security, and underdevelopment. Learn more
Fiscal Policy
Fiscal policy is the use of government spending and taxation to influence the economy. The IMF monitors and analyzes global fiscal trends and advises IMF member countries on fiscal issues directly.?Learn more
Sovereign Debt
The ability to carry debt varies widely among countries. Debt vulnerabilities have increased especially in low-income countries and some emerging market economies.?Learn more
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How is the IMF financed?
The IMF's resources mainly come from the money that countries pay as their capital subscription (quotas) when they become members. Each member of the IMF is assigned a quota, based broadly on its relative position in the world economy. Countries can then borrow from this pool when they fall into financial difficulty.
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What kind of research does the IMF do?
Economic research is a core activity at the IMF and is dedicated to fostering a deeper understanding of the global economy by analyzing economic trends, challenges, and their implications for both individual countries and the international community. IMF research covers a broad spectrum of macroeconomic and financial issues, including exchange rates, fiscal policy, monetary policy, and global financial stability. Have a look at our publications, which?highlight the real-time advice, capacity development, and support the Fund has provided to our members.?
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2023年10月《世界經(jīng)濟展望》
2023年10月《世界經(jīng)濟展望》
《世界經(jīng)濟展望》
應(yīng)對全球分化
2023年10月
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報告章節(jié)
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報告全文
概覽
全球復(fù)蘇依然緩慢，地區(qū)分化不斷加劇，政策失誤幾無余地
全球經(jīng)濟增速的基線預(yù)測值將從2022年的3.5%降至2023年的3.0%和2024年的2.9%，遠低于3.8%的歷史（2000-2019年）平均水平。在發(fā)達經(jīng)濟體，隨著政策收緊開始產(chǎn)生負面影響，經(jīng)濟增速預(yù)計將從2022年的2.6%放緩至2023年的1.5%和2014年的1.4%。新興市場和發(fā)展中經(jīng)濟體2023年和2024年的經(jīng)濟增速預(yù)計將小幅下降，從2022年的4.1%降至2023年和2024年的4.0%。由于貨幣政策收緊，加之國際大宗商品價格下跌，預(yù)計全球通脹率將從2022年的8.7%穩(wěn)步降至2023年的6.9%和2024年的5.8%。總體來看，核心通脹預(yù)計將更緩慢地下降，大多數(shù)國家的通脹預(yù)計要到2025年才能回到目標水平。
當前，貨幣政策措施和框架是保持通脹預(yù)期有效錨定的關(guān)鍵。第二章闡述了短期和中期通脹預(yù)期以及不同經(jīng)濟主體通脹預(yù)期的最近趨勢。該章強調(diào)了貨幣政策框架（包括溝通策略）在管理經(jīng)濟主體通脹預(yù)期、從而幫助以較低產(chǎn)出成本來降低通脹方面發(fā)揮的互補性作用。鑒于各方對地緣經(jīng)濟割裂的擔憂日益增加，第三章分析了全球大宗商品貿(mào)易的擾動會對大宗商品價格、經(jīng)濟活動和綠色能源轉(zhuǎn)型產(chǎn)生何種影響。
報告全文
執(zhí)行摘要
前言
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增速預(yù)測
2023年10月《世界經(jīng)濟展望》報告章節(jié)
第一章：全球前景與政策
全球各地區(qū)的增長前景出現(xiàn)分化，這對各國恢復(fù)疫情前的產(chǎn)出趨勢構(gòu)成了挑戰(zhàn)。盡管有跡象顯示經(jīng)濟在2023年較早時呈現(xiàn)出了韌性，但為降低通脹而收緊政策的影響預(yù)計將使未來的經(jīng)濟活動降溫。由于瑞士和美國當局果斷采取行動遏制了金融動蕩，因此，經(jīng)濟前景面臨的風險比今年早些時候更為平衡；然而，風險仍然偏向下行，這意味著容不得任何政策失誤。貨幣政策應(yīng)堅持將通脹控制在目標水平，同時需要開展財政整頓來應(yīng)對不斷飆升的債務(wù)。在政策空間有限的情況下，實施結(jié)構(gòu)性改革對于重振中期增長前景至關(guān)重要。為了加快推動綠色轉(zhuǎn)型、增強抵御氣候沖擊的韌性并改善數(shù)百萬人的糧食安全，我們需要加強多邊框架并堅持基于規(guī)則的國際合作平臺。
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第二章：管理預(yù)期：通貨膨脹與貨幣政策
全球各地的通脹在2022年達到了數(shù)十年來的最高水平。雖然總體通脹已經(jīng)下降，但核心通脹表現(xiàn)出了更大的粘性。過去兩年經(jīng)歷的高通脹，可能導(dǎo)致通脹預(yù)期長期處于高位，這將使央行將通脹降回至目標水平的工作更趨復(fù)雜。第二章總結(jié)了不同經(jīng)濟體、不同經(jīng)濟主體和不同期限的通脹預(yù)期的最近走勢。實證分析顯示，短期通脹預(yù)期對通脹走勢的作用越來越大。使用基于模型的方法，該章發(fā)現(xiàn)，推升通脹的供應(yīng)沖擊正長期持續(xù)；此外，當預(yù)期通過“回溯”方式形成時，貨幣政策的有效性會降低。然而，改善貨幣政策框架（包括溝通策略）能更好地為經(jīng)濟主體提供信息來幫助其形成預(yù)期，促進通脹更快回歸目標水平并降低相應(yīng)的產(chǎn)出成本，從而對標準的周期性政策起到補充。
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第三章：全球割裂與大宗商品市場：脆弱性與風險
俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭導(dǎo)致主要大宗商品市場出現(xiàn)割裂，而地緣政治緊張局勢可能會使情況雪上加霜。第三章探討了大宗商品貿(mào)易的進一步擾動可能會對大宗商品價格、經(jīng)濟活動和能源轉(zhuǎn)型產(chǎn)生何種影響。該章得出了四個結(jié)論。第一，由于大宗商品生產(chǎn)集中度高，難于替代，且對科技具有關(guān)鍵作用，因而大宗商品特別容易受到市場割裂的影響。第二，進一步的市場割裂將導(dǎo)致大宗商品價格大幅搖擺、波動加劇。第三，大宗商品貿(mào)易擾動將對各國產(chǎn)生極不均衡的影響，但由于各國之間的抵消效應(yīng)，全球損失看來有限。低收入國家由于高度依賴農(nóng)業(yè)進口，將承擔極大的經(jīng)濟成本。第四，礦物市場的割裂將推高能源轉(zhuǎn)型的成本。在一個示意性的情景中，到2030年，可再生能源和電動汽車領(lǐng)域的投資將因此減少三分之一。若能達成一個綠色走廊協(xié)議，則可以保證關(guān)鍵礦物的國際流動。若能就基本糧食類大宗商品達成類似協(xié)議，則可穩(wěn)定農(nóng)業(yè)市場。此類協(xié)議將保障我們在應(yīng)對氣候變化和糧食安全問題上實現(xiàn)全球性目標。
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出版物
《世界經(jīng)濟展望》
最新發(fā)布
《全球金融穩(wěn)定報告》
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最新發(fā)布
2022年10月
亞太地區(qū)經(jīng)濟展望
2023年9月
《金融與發(fā)展》：阿拉伯世界的經(jīng)濟命運
2023年9月
2023年年報：努力開展協(xié)調(diào)合作
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Navigating Global Divergences
The baseline forecast is for global growth to slow from 3.5 percent in 2022 to 3.0 percent in 2023 and 2.9 percent in 2024, well below the historical (2000–19) average of 3.8 percent.
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A Disrupted Global Recovery
Growth slows as economies grapple with supply disruptions, higher inflation, record debt and persistent uncertainty.
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A Proposal to End the COVID-19 Pandemic
What urgent steps can halt the rising human and economic toll of the pandemic? Here are 7 proposals to end the pandemic.
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The Global Housing Watch is a web page that tracks developments in housing markets across the world on a quarterly basis.
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Data on Primary Commodity Prices are updated monthly based on the IMF's Primary Commodity Price system. Browse the data and access the interactive portal here.
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